Betting to Improve the Odds - New York Times
An article in the NY Times serves as a nice primer about the emerging role of prediction markets for decision making and innovation in the corporate setting. The article notes that companies such as Cisco Systems, GE Healthcare, Best Buy, General Mills, InterContinental Hotels, and Google are using prediction markets to harness wise crowds in order to figure out things like what the cost of computer chips will be in six months, will the new store in Shanghai open on time, and how can a hotel website be better designed to facilitate reservations.Although it only touches on the subject momentarily, the article does mention one of the most exciting ways of using the crowd for engendering better ideas: customers. As potentially revolutionary as the idea of bringing a whole workforce into the decision-making process is, including customers in the process is doubly so.
And while prediction markets are the exclusive focus of the article, they should be regarded as one of several mechanisms for bringing to bear the wisdom of the crowd. Conventional polling is one possibility, as is online discussion which is shortly to become a far more practical and feasible thing with the advent of You Said It, an online discussion widget currently in beta testing: www.yousaidit.com. The days of the endless linear discussion board are numbered, thank goodness. More on this to come.